Editor’s Note: This is the latest edition of our 40-man roster breakdown series. You can read previous issues here.

Nick Senzel

• Position:  Third base, second base, and outfield
• Current status: Arb-eligible (2nd year, Free Agent in 2026)
• How acquired:  Signed as a free agent, 12/12/2023
• 2023 Grade: C-
• 2024 Opening Day Projection: Probable third baseman and #7 batter
• 2023 stats: 104 G, .236/.297/.399, 49 R, 10 2B, 0 3B, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 6-8 SB, 85 OPS+, .302 wOBA, 83 wRC+, 0.0 bWAR, -0.4 fWAR

2023 Analysis

Welcome to the latest installment of the Scrap Heap Challenge presented by Mike Rizzo! Will this be a hit episode like Kyle Schwarber or Jeimer Candelario? Or a flop along the lines of Maikel Franco or Corey Dickerson? Stay tuned to find out! Senzel was a casualty of the Reds’ youth movement this offseason, and although the Nats signed him for just one year they can retain his rights in 2025 should they so choose. The former #2 overall pick (2016) has never hit well enough nor flashed the leather to hold down a full-time role across parts of five major league seasons, and 2023 was no exception - although it was his best season since his rookie year of 2019. Senzel’s biggest issue is his quality of contact; in a world where the average BABIP is .300, he has only exceeded that mark once in five tries (in his rookie year when the ball was juiced). Beyond that, he was a replacement-level player who got shuffled around the lineup and the field to make room for more exciting young players like Will Benson and Elly de la Cruz.

2024 outlook

Is Darnell Coles the right hitting coach to get more thump out of Senzel’s bat? That remains to be seen, but I would not rush to buy the over. Perhaps playing with childhood best friend Lane Thomas will provide a boost to Senzel and get him closer to league average, along with a (for the moment) regular role as the starting third baseman. The contract ($2 million) is such that it will be easy for the Nats to move on should he struggle and Brady House or Yohandy Morales prove themselves ready for an aggressive promotion at some point this summer. Additionally, there are two other cromulent enough third base options (Ildemaro Vargas and Joey Gallo, both of whom are significantly better defenders at the position, and also the possibility of Nasim Nuñez) on the roster who give Davey Martinez the flexibility to put someone else in the lineup if Senzel struggles rather than, say, running a decomposing Nelson Cruz out there every day. I expect this signing to be more Franco/Dickerson than Schwarber/Candelario, but there are some small reasons to hope for a little better than that.