Perspective: Is Luis Garcia the real deal?
Luis Garcia is one of the Nationals’ most promising prospects, but is he the real deal? Even though it’s a limited sample size, let's dive into the numbers he’s put up thus far in his young career.
According to Baseball America, Luis Garcia shows advanced contact skills for his age as well as the tools to become above-average or better in the middle infield. Taking a look at Statcast, he seems to struggle the most with strikeouts when pitches are thrown in both lower corners, striking out on average in 75% of his games (29 SO in 40 games). Opposing pitchers also know to throw him offspeed pitches more frequently by looking at his Whiff% (45%) for those pitch types.
Being called up last year had its challenges for any player, but for a 20-year-old rookie, it was arguably infinitely more difficult. Garcia came in for 40 games in replacement for Starlin Castro who had broken his wrist and performed fairly decently. He had a .276/.366/.302, hitting line with an OPS of .668, and 29 strikeouts in 134 at-bats. On the surface these are pretty respectable numbers, especially taking into account that he was the youngest player in baseball last season and the situation he - and all of the MLB - was in with the COVID-19 restrictions. Defensively, the main number being looked at for me is Fielding % (putouts + assists/putouts + assists + errors). In 2020, Garcia had a combined FLD% of .949 at SS and 2B with the league average at .977.
Hopefully, this season will be far more “normal” than the last. Through nine Spring Training games, Garcia is batting .231, with a .474 OBP and a .308 SLG% for an OPS of .729. He has also displayed better plate discipline, drawing six walks while striking out only once. The average has dipped, but young players have to adjust to the high level of the MLB and it’s a small sample size that includes just 19 plate appearances and 13 at-bats. Without Spring Training defensive statistics readily available, we will need to wait until the real games count to get a read on his defensive numbers.
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With only 19 days left until Opening Day, we are inching closer to seeing the 2021 iteration of the Washington Nationals. With everyone starting this season healthy, we may not get a full time Luis Garcia, and that is ok.
After all, he won’t turn 21 until May of this year and not every 20-year-old prospect will be like Juan Soto. But, looking at the Baseball Reference 2021 projections, Luis Garcia should get plenty of chances to prove himself at the big league level. In a projected 388 plate appearances and 354 at-bats, he is expected to post a .266 batting average, .412 SLG%, .326 OBP, an OPS of .739, and 85 strikeouts. All of these numbers, except average, are a marked improvement over his 2020 sample and should be music to Nats fans ears.
If he makes the Opening Day roster, having Kevin Long as his hitting coach as well as having guys like Soto and Turner to learn from will certainly help him improve. Even if he gets sent down to the AAA Rochester Red Wings at the beginning of the season, at least Garcia will have a chance to play every day and continue to develop his game. In 2021, consistency is going to be key and the seemingly normal schedule should help all of the players, but we may see the most impact on young guys like Luis Garcia.
Edited by: Jonathan Mailloux
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