Rock and Roll Hall of Famer Tom Petty wrote that “the waiting is the hardest part”, but that same lyric could have been penned by any baseball general manager when it comes to the prospects in their system. Undoubtedly, Washington Nationals’ GM Mike Rizzo has felt that way since he selected Carter Kieboom with the 28th overall pick in the 2016 amateur draft. Unlike the NFL and NBA, most casual baseball fans will never hear about a top draft pick again unless the player is called up or traded away. The prospects that advance through the minor leagues will stand out against their competition and that is exactly what Kieboom has done since he signed with Washington.
Despite consistently being one of the younger players at each level, the now 23-year-old Kieboom advanced through five minor league levels in just two full seasons and was consistently considered one of the top position prospects in the Nationals’ system.
Playing for the AAA Fresno Grizzlies in 2019, Kieboom produced a slash line of .303/.409/.493 in 109 games. His performance earned him a promotion to Washington that April when Trea Turner was injured. In his MLB debut, Kieboom slugged an eighth-inning game-tying home run, but only managed a .128 batting average over the next 11 games before being demoted. With the departure of third baseman Anthony Rendon via free agency after 2019 and Turner firmly entrenched at shortstop, the Nationals converted Kieboom to third base for the start of the 2020 season, a position he had only played 10 times in 289 minor league games.
Despite his inexperience, Manager Davey Martinez named him the club’s starting 3B before Opening Day and by most advanced metrics, he played solid defense there when given the chance. Unfortunately, Kieboom’s batting did not show the same improvement as his glove and he was demoted to the alternate training site after managing to hit just .200 without an extra-base hit in 50 at-bats. He returned 10 days later, but his season was abruptly ended when he was struck on the left wrist against the Philadelphia Phillies on September 21st.
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After the shortened 2020 campaign and a total of just 138 at-bats in his career, Carter Kieboom has a career slash line of .181/.309/.232. While he has an above average walk rate (12.7%) and on-base percentage, Kieboom has struck out an alarming 30% of the time and produced little power with only three extra-base hits. However, this is a very small sample size and could partially be attributed to his inconsistent use in the lineup and trying to learn a new position. After this past season, some pundits have expressed the need to move on from Kieboom, However, this seems like a lack of patience, compounded by the pressure of trying to win another World Series while aging players like Max Scherzer are still in their prime and before young stars like Juan Soto and Turner reach free agency.
The situation is eerily similar to the 2007 Boston Red Sox and then rookie Dustin Pedroia. Although he was Boston’s second-round pick in 2004, Pedroia, like Kieboom, moved up quickly through the minor leagues and in his 2006 season with AAA Pawtucket Red Sox produced an impressive slash line of .305/.384/.426. All very similar, but not as good as Kieboom’s final minor league season in Fresno. Pedroia struggled to hit during his September call up in 2006 and those struggles continued the following April when he was the Red Sox starting second baseman.
During his first 21 games of the 2007 season, Pedroia produced a slash line .172/.294/.224 and the fans and media in Boston were calling for him to be replaced by veteran Alex Cora. Despite this noise, Red Sox Manager Terry Francona stuck with Pedroia, who turned his season around and went on to win American League Rookie of the Year and eventually an MVP. Like Pedroia, Kieboom has displayed an impressive hit tool throughout his minor league career, but he has not been given the same chance to work through his growing pains and make the adjustments necessary to hit at the MLB level.
Kieboom may not develop into a player of Pedroia’s caliber, but if Washington doesn’t give him a real chance, we will never really know. Offensively, Kieboom has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues, so perhaps trading him away would be the best thing for the Nationals’ title hopes this year and Kieboom’s career. It worked when Washington traded Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning to the White Sox for Adam Eaton, who was integral to the Nationals' World Series victory.
However, if Kieboom does develop into a quality player with another team and Washington fails to win the title, they will have given away an everyday player with five-years of control. This would be bad enough, but replacing him with a veteran third baseman would have financial implications that could make retaining star players like Turner and Juan Soto difficult. Nationals’ management needs to give him this opportunity, otherwise they could be mortgaging the future for an unsure thing.