Whenever the lockout is over, the Nationals are going to need to address the pitcher spot both in terms of the starters, relievers, and even closers. As of now, this is how the starting rotation looks like for the 2022 Washington Nationals in no specific order:
- Patrick Corbin (LHP)
- Josiah Gray (RHP)
- Stephen Strasburg (RHP) if he is healthy
- Joe Ross (RHP)
While there are relievers that could be closer or even being part of the starting rotation, an organization that in the past has put an emphasis on pitching the Nationals should be on the lookout for some extra hands to fill all-important innings. One pitcher that could be an interesting pick-up during this year's free agency could be right-handed pitcher Joe Kelly.
Kelly himself has been a perfect example of reliever variance and the perils- and benefits!- of reliever contracts. He signed with the Dodgers after the 2018 season for 3 years and $25M, with a (now declined) $12M option for 2022.
Related Article: The Nationals Starting Rotation: A Problem that Needs to be Fixed
In 2019, Kelly had a rocky 4.56 ERA but a more respectable 3.78 FIP. He got off to an awful start- a 7.59 ERA as late as June 10th- but recovered for a 2.40 ERA (2.78 FIP) the rest of the way. His WPA on the season was -0.72, bottom quartile for relievers. In last year's season, Kelly was very good with a 2.86 ERA (3.07 FIP) and a 1.67 WPA in the upper quartile of the league among relievers. His K-BB% was just outside the upper quartile for relievers and his GB% was 12th best. He wasn’t one of the very best relievers in 2021, but he was very good. Adding Kelly to the Nationals would give the reliving core a much-needed upgrade and he could even be slotted into the pitching rotation.
Even though Kelly is 33 years old, his stuff hasn’t been declining, actually quite the opposite. Kelly's curveball was featured in a recent article in Driveline.com, where the site referred to Kelly’s curveball as “wizardry”. From the article:
The Driveline piece also references his sinker. Eno Sarris, writing about Stuff+ again, cited Kelly’s 2021 curveball with a 131 Stuff+ score, ninth-best in all of baseball. The Stuff+ score for his overall repertoire comes in at 108.1. Had he done that as a Cardinal, the only teammate with a better Stuff+ would have been Giovanny Gallegos (112.4), with Adam Wainwright (106.3) just a little behind?
How much would it cost to lock him up? According to FanGraphs.com crowdsourcing, Kelly is projected to get 2 years and a $7M AAV which is a pretty good deal and would give time for the team's pitching prospects to get some more seasoning in the minor leagues. His projected salary is based upon the assumption that teams aren't nervous about his injury that led him to leave during this year's Game 5 of the NLCS.
Unfortunately, as much as Kelly is an attractive option, we highly doubt that the Nationals are going to make a huge splash during this year's free agency, leaving the team to look for some "bottom" basement shopping that some would argue happened during last season's offseason. Kelly would be a good pick-up and come with low risk. If the Nationals are trending in the wrong direction towards the trade deadline in late July, Kelly could be an attractive trade piece to further improve the Nationals farm system.