Is it time to think about trading Max Scherzer?

With 2021 the last year of Max Scherzer's contract with the Washington Nationals, before he hits free agency, it is worth looking at what the Nationals should do with the three-time Cy Young and All-Star and future Hall of Fame pitcher.

While many hardcore fans wouldn't like seeing reports of Scherzer on the trading block, if you remove your intense feelings and take a look at the numbers, then it is worth a look and at least a discussion.

In this article I am going to take a closer look at, and present, his metrics and emotions that come into making a decision.

At the end it is up to you, the reader, to come to your own conclusion. But fear not - by the end I share my thoughts too!

What do the metrics say?

We all know of Max Scherzer's abilities on the mound, and time after time, he continually adjusts and adapts to how he approaches pitching and how he attacks batters at the plate. However, there are some troubling signs and metrics that require a closer look.

Taking a look at the metrics, according to Fan Graphs, you can see some downward trends happening, which make sense due to his age. For example, Scherzer's pitching selection percentages have changed over the past few years. Specifically, the number of fastballs thrown has decreased from 59% in 2015 when his first season with the Nationals to 46% last year, while the percentage of cutters thrown has increased from 0% in 2015 to 10% last year.

At the end of his first year with the Nationals in 2015, his ERA was 2.79, and at the end of 2020, Scherzer's ERA was 3.74, so there has been a steady increase in his ERA during his time here in Washington which can be attributed to different factors. From 2019 to 2020 Scherzer's ERA increased once again from 2.92 to 3.74.

We have also seen the amount of innings pitched decrease over time. From 2018 to 2019, Scherzer's innings pitched decreased from 220 to 171. When Scherzer played for the Diamondbacks in 2008, he pitched a total of 170. It wasn't until the 2015 season with the Washington Nationals that he pitched a career high of 228.2 and this has been decreasing ever since. What can you take from this stat? Well, there are a lot of factors beyond his control. And that is why you look at how batters are approaching hitting Scherzer.

Additional metrics to consider is Scherzer's increased percentage of balls in play and the strikeout rate over nine innings. Over the past few seasons, we have seen opposing batters making more contact with Scherzer's pitches.

At the end of the 2015 season, Scherzer's strikeout rate over nine innings was 10%, and in 2020, his strikeout rate is two points higher at 12%. Additionally, the percentage of balls in play has increased from .268 in 2015 to .355 at the end of 2020.

Over at Baseball Sanvant, they compared Scherzer’s pitching metrics such as Exit Velocity, % of baseballs that were hard hit in 2020, and in a majority of the categories, Scherzer ranks in the middle of the Major League or even below.

However, if you look back at 2019, all the same metrics were way over 50% and a majority of them were near or close to 100.

One stat that has remained the same, which is a good sign, is Scherzer's pitching velocity from 2019 to 2020. It is interesting to note that from 2018 to 2019, Scherzer's velocity increased. Over the past couple of years, we have also seen Scherzer's ERA increase since being with the Nationals.

In an age of advanced scouting, players have a lot of information about Scherzer's tendences and pitch selection and locations before they even step into the batter's box.

The intangibles that Scherzer brings to pitching and the clubhouse can't be measured and should also be considered. Having the top pitching prospects currently being developed in the minors, watch and learn from Scherzer on how to prepare for and execute a game plan cannot be measured in stats.

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Is there a situation where the Nationals do consider trading Scherzer?

Yes, I think that there is a situation where the Nationals should look and even consider what players or prospects are offered.

What happens if the Nationals are way out of playoff contention at the MLB trade deadline? Would it make sense to trade Max at that point?

What if a team at the trade deadline is looking for that one last piece to complete a rotation and has the prospects that would match a pitcher's price with two CY Young awards and is a proven pitcher every five days? Does it make sense then?

If the player package was right for the Nationals, it might be something that should be considered even though we all love Max Scherzer. This brings me to my next point: we have to take the emotions out of the decision.

What would a trade look like?

You don't have to look too far back in time to find precedent of a team trading a two-time Cy Young Award pitcher. In 2019, the Cleveland Indians traded two-time Cy Young Award winner and their ace, who also was with their organization for six years: 33-year-old pitcher Corey Kluber.

In return for Corey Kluber, Cleveland received centerfielder Delino DeShields and pitching prospect Emmanuel Clase, a hard-throwing 21-year-old reliever with "electric stuff."

The 28-year-old centerfielder Delino DeShields performed well during the 2020 season; he had a batting average of .252 and slugging percentage of .318 with seven RBIs in 120 plate appearances. DeShields also appeared in 37 games last season, and his fielding was good. In 2019, he had a batting average of .252, an OPS of .310, and a slugging percentage of .318. DeShields appeared in 118 games and had 408 plate appearances.

Pitching prospect Emmanuel Clase at the time of his trade was Cleveland's sixth-best prospect. Now MLB.com and Baseball America have him at 15. Since there was no Minor League season in 2020 and with his suspension, there are no updated metrics to examine.

Kluber, on the other hand, did not play in one game during the shortened 2020 season. In his first appearance in 2020, Kluber was pulled in the first inning in July due to tightness in his pitching shoulder. He would sit out for the rest of the season.

Kluber is now one of the free-agent pitchers currently on the market.

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Trying to take emotions out of consideration when dealing with players is a monumental task to ask the biggest fan; in every sport, I cannot even begin to think how it weighs on management and ownership.

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Does it make sense, especially in these crazy economic times with the Nationals having so many needs all over the field and a depleted farm system, to put money behind a player to finish his career in a Nationals uniform at the end of the year?

When do the team's needs outweigh an emotional connection to a player? Over the past few years, we have seen the Lerner's remove the emotional connection to a player and act in the franchise's best interest.

You don't have to go back far to find an example. One would argue that just happened by the Nationals not signing Anthony Rendon to a long term deal with the Nationals and even Bryce Harper's situation.

As fans, do we need to do the same thing?

My thoughts:

After taking a look at Scherzer’s stats and the current stats of the Washington Nationals, I believe that you can an make argument either way. Trust me; I tried to look at this objectively, and it's hard. Watching Max Scherzer pitch every five days has been something else. There is no one else like him; his passion and dedication to pitching is second to none; seeing him end his career in a Washington Nationals jersey would make me very happy.

However, I believe that there could be a situation where it would be an excellent move for the Nationals, and they should not shy away from making what would be a very hard decision.

Unfortunately, players come and go and while we all wish that every player that becomes part of the fabric of a team stays forever until they decide to move on, we also have to move on and just root for the team. I am kind of glad that I just get to enjoy baseball and write about the Washington Nationals!

What do you think?