Nationals and J. T. Realmuto Pros and Cons
With more and more rumors swirling around All-Star Catcher J.T. Realmuto take a closer look at the pros and cons of the Washington Nationals signing him.
This has already been looked at once by Richard here at The Nats Report. Now we are back in the middle of the rumors again, so I figured I would put a new set of eyes on it. Again check out @NationalsSource Holiday Giveaway at the end of this article.
Jacob Tyler Realmuto (J.T. Realmuto) has long been a focus of Washington Nationals fans and the front office. This infatuation goes back a few years, but it all began in the winter of 2018. The Marlins were in the midst of a fire sale, and Realmuto seemed to be one of those players with the right trade that would be moved to another team.
Realmuto's value was sky-high because he had three years of control; he was the best catcher in baseball and was entering arbitration. Suppose the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals were to trade. In that case, the Miami Marlins were looking for a deal that started with Victor Robles (a top 5 prospect in baseball at the time) and wanted the Nationals to include even more.
The trade was not that crazy of a request, and these talks would continue for a year. Over that year, different packages were exchanged, including either Juan Soto or Victor Robles. The Nationals decided that they would not trade either of those two players, and in the end, the Phillies ended up landing the league's premier catcher via trade.
They sent Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart, $250,000 in international pool money, and top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez. The Phillies got the "prize," but with recent reports arround baseball, it is looking like the Phillies are not heading in right direction after not having a winning season for the lastt mine years and the and the Marlins look like they are up and coming with a future ace on the verge of breaking out.
Realmuto is one of the top free agents this year, and rumors suggest he is looking for a 5 to 6 year deal with an average annual value of over 20 million. The Nationals are now right back in the center of Realmuto rumors, but is now the time to go all-in on the best catcher in baseball?
Postives Surrounding Signing Realmuto
Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball, and that is precisely why so many, including Mike Rizzo, have wanted him to land in D.C. for so many years. Since 2015 he is 3rd in fWAR for catchers behind only Buster Posey and Yasmani Grandal.
During the 2019 season, Realmuto had the 15th best fWAR season for a catcher in the past ten years, and he consistently has one of the best exit velocities of any catcher in the league. For the Nationals, he would fill a hole that they have had since 2016 Wilson Ramos.
The Nationals haven't had a haven't catcher since then, and while the pairing of Gomes and Suzuki did a great job over the past two years, there needs to be a better solution.
Realmuto play catcher could also play first base, and when DH becomes permanent in the NL East, he could be placed there as well. J. T. Realmuto would also provide some upgraded lineup protection for Juan Soto and be an excellent target for our stable elite pitchers and the young ones on the way up. It isn't all positive's with bringing in J. T. Realmuto.
Next Page: Cons of Signing J.T. Realmuto
Are there any Negatives surrounding Signing Realmuto?
The Pros of signing Realmuto are there, but it's not all positives. The Cons of this decision can be broken down into two things: financial impact and team needs.
When it comes to finances, Realmuto is looking for the highest AAV in the history of baseball for a catcher. Spotrac thinks that Realmuto's val Realmuto's22 million a year for five years, but to have the highest AAV ever at the position, he would have to beat out Joe Mauer's $23 million, Mauer's year that he got from the Twins at the age of 28. Let's look at that contract went for the Twins: at the age of 28, he posted a 2.1 fWAR, then a 4.6, and on to a 5.2 when he turned 30.
The Washington Nationals need a big bat, period. While Realmuto is a good bat, he is not a great one by any stretch. He has a career OPS just .007 higher than Adam Eaton's, and while many love Spanky, I don't think anyone would categorize him as a big bat. Let's go a little deeper and look at some other of Realmuto's stats.
To start, let's take a look at Baseball Prospectus's Deserved Runs Created Plus (DRC+), which measures all of a player's contributions at the plate, and the league average is 100. (To learn more about this stat, head over to Baseball Prospectus)
In the last four years Realmuto has posted a 101, 122, 106 and 107 DRC+, meaning that outside of one year his bat has been pretty average.
Suppose you look at the Fangraphs Offensive Rating (which measures a player's impact with the bat and the base paths). Realmuto has only finished top 60 in all of baseball once and never finished in the top 40.
In 2019 Realmuto finished right between Danny Santana and Christian Walker they are good players, but I doubt I would give them over $20 million a year to be my big bat.
Finally, let's look at Win Probability Added stat, where Realmuto finished on the negative side of things in 2020 and only had above a 1 WPA once in his career. His value is all tied up in him being a catcher, and that's proven if you do his WAR calculation as if he was the first baseman, it drops by 35%.
No matter what stat you look at, Realmuto is a great catcher, but the Washington Nationals also need a bat to be added to the lineup; there are certainly better ones out there. Realmuto is a luxury, and right now, with the Washington Nationals financial situation, I don't know if Realmuto is the player that can fit all of their needs.
A lot more goes into the Cons of this article. After all, you have to dig deeper to find them. Still, the value of a player is not always based on the surface level.
Watching the offseason drama play out and seeing who signs Realmuto will undoubtedly be an exciting topic to pay attention to.
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