After an incredibly disappointing COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, the Nationals are once again gearing up for another season and hopefully another playoff run. Despite losing some key pieces from a successful 2019 squad, the Nationals started Spring Training 2020 with high hopes. Then the COVID-19 Pandemic shut everything down for fourth months. Major League Baseball announced a shortened 60-game season and Spring Training became “Summer Training”.

Baseball players are widely considered creatures of habit and between the weirdness of the shortened regular season and some bad luck, the Nationals never adjusted to these changes and finished fourth in the NL East with a 26-34 record. Not quite the season that the defending World Series Champions and their fan were expecting at all.

What went wrong in 2020?

The Nationals lost star third baseman Anthony Rendon to the Los Angeles Angels after he turned down a contract from Washington with a lot of deferred money. Instead of using this money to replace Rendon, the Nationals opted to give a massive 7-year, $245 million extension to Stephen Strasburg, who ironically could not even pitch more than five innings due to a wrist injury. Opening Night could not have started any worse with star outfielder Juan Soto testing positive for COVID-19. He went on to miss the first eight games of the season, which hurt the Nationals and likely cost him a shot at the National League MVP award.

From there, it was all downhill as the Nats could not replicate the production of the departed Rendon or the injured Strasburg. The loss of these two players combined with other injuries and sub-par performances crushed their hopes of a successful season.

What does 2021 look like?

First and foremost, this team MUST stay healthy. From the starting pitching to the everyday lineup to the bullpen, a lack of depth could potentially be a major issue. As we saw in 2019, early injuries to multiple key players like Turner and Rendon led to the now infamous 19-31 record to start that season. That team managed to dig out of that hole and win the World Series, but that was a highly unusual occurrence.

Secondly, with all the offseason improvements to division rivals, this team needs to get off to a fast start to have a real chance at competing for the division and making the playoffs. In the past three years, only once have they started with a winning record, which was 2018 when they started 28-22. On paper, that 2018 team had a better offense than the 2021 squad and despite this, they ended up 82-80 and missed the playoffs.

As we sit now, Fangraphs has the Nationals finishing 81.6-80.4 (82-80) which would be good for third in the division behind both Atlanta and New York. They also put us with only a 7.2% chance to win the division and a 23% chance to make the playoffs. Starting off with a good record against a tough early schedule that includes the Mets and Braves would put the Nationals in a great position to make a run at the NL East.

(See Related Articles: New York Mets, Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies 2021 Season Previews)

Third, the players need to perform at or above their expectations. Last season, we saw drop offs from essentially everyone except Soto and Turner. The Nationals are projected to have the 6th best pitching WAR and the 16th best batting WAR in baseball this season. Improve the 2020 batting WAR production from the likes of Robles, Bell, Schwarber and Kieboom and we could be sitting much better than an average offensive team. Also, since the departure of Rendon, the defense has been shaky to say the least. Shoring up third will help, as will improved defensive production from our outfielders and first base as well.

It is probably optimistic to expect all of these to happen, but if the players play and management can help cure deficiencies in the club by the Trade Deadline, the Nationals could make a strong push to exceed expectations and have a nice rebound season. One that hopefully includes some long needed 2019 World Series Champion celebration at Nationals Park.

Edited by: Jonathan Mailloux

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