THE LEAD

Fifth Starter Battle

For many teams, arguing in mid-March about who the fifth starter will or should be might not have a ton of bearing on actual results, as most teams use anywhere from ten to fifteen different pitchers to start games throughout the season, with back-end rotation types perhaps only pitching half a season. The Nats, however, are built different, as they have used the fewest starting pitchers in the majors (ten different guys) across the past two seasons combined despite losing one starter early on in each season to Tommy John surgery (Cade Cavalli at the end of spring training 2023, Josiah Gray after two April starts last year). Across those two seasons, a mere seven pitchers (Patrick Corbin, Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams, Gore, Gray, Mitchell Parker, and Herz) have accounted for 303 of a possible 324 starts (Joan Adon, Jackson Rutledge, and Chad Kuhl covered the remaining 21). So in this organization, it is quite likely that whoever wins the job in the spring - particularly since the competition is down to a couple of homegrown candidates rather than veteran scrap heap finds as in years past - keeps it for much of the year.

Given Herz’s velocity and command woes this spring, that role would now appear to be Parker’s to lose, although Herz said yesterday that slow starts in spring training are normal for him, and should the Nats only look at games that count he would have an emphatic edge over Parker since he was probably the Nats’ best starter after the All-Star break a year ago (whereas Parker faded badly - although he took the hill 29 times). That the Nationals have put themselves in a position where a couple of their own young guys - one whom they drafted and one whom they acquired via trade - are competing for this one spot is an organizational win, and a feather in the cap of the development team. It was just a year ago that veteran retread Zach Davies coughed up a chance to be that fifth guy, and now two second-year guys with promise aged 24 and 25 are vying for the same role.

That the Nationals have been able to have more stability than any other team in their rotation over the past two seasons owes even more to a developmental philosophy than it does to, say, Corbin’s durability in not missing a start for health reasons over the entirety of his Washington tenure. Pitchers do not learn how to grind out 32 starts over six months by being five-and-dive guys (or worse)at every level of the minor leagues, as they do in most other organizations in an effort to “save bullets” - all while arm surgeries are on a bit of the rise. The Nats push their minor league starters - provided that they maintain pitch efficiency - to pitch deeper into games than most other teams. Lord pitched into the sixth inning or later 13 times in 25 starts, Andrew Alvarez 12/26, Andry Lara 13/25, Kyle Luckham 16/27, and Tyler Stuart 3/8 after arriving via trade. Even the 20-year-old young guns in low-A upon whom so much organizational hope rests (Jarlin Susana and Travis Sykora) were completing fifth innings on the regular - Susana in 14 of his final 16 starts and Sykora in 12 of his last 15. It’s possible that by asking their pitchers to work more, the Nats might be keeping them healthier throughout the season.

 SPRING TRAINING COVERAGE 2025

Today’s Game Action

We are in the slow part of spring training, where everyone is just about ready for the season to start (but for 1-2 roster spot battles per team) and there isn’t much news to report. Thankfully, the Nats (who do have a battle for the fifth starter that looks to be wrapping up) are playing in MLB’s free game of the day this afternoon at 1:05, with the first of their Spring Breakout games set to start an hour later against the Astros’ prospect team. So there should be some fun and/or interesting things to report on when Monday’s Morning Briefing gets published.

 SPRING TRAINING COVERAGE 2025

Game Recap

Oof. DJ Herz, one of the two guys presumed to be in the running for that coveted fifth starter slot (not to be too pedantic, but it will probably be the fourth spot, since the Nats likely won’t want to have their two lefties pitch consecutively - and MacKenzie Gore will almost certainly be the Opening Day starter), got exactly one swing-and-miss in his three innings yesterday with noticeably lower velocity than we are accustomed to seeing from him. Herz did manage to limit the scoring damage to a solo shot by Brandon Lowe (as in “OW!”), but he was followed by the heretofore unimpeachable Brad Lord, who had perhaps his worst blowup inning since he joined the organization, allowing eight runs - all earned - on seven hits and two walks while recording but two outs. Offensively, James Wood and CJ Abrams both homered off of Shane Baz - probably Tampa Bay’s #2 starter this year - but the Nats were shut out over the final six innings of a 14-4 loss.

This afternoon, the Nats take on Atlanta in Venice while their Spring Breakout prospect team plays the Astros in West Palm Beach (the Nats will be the visitors). First pitches are scheduled for 1:05 and 2:05, respectively.

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Speed Reads

📌 What’s Next After Cole’s Injury (Yahoo! Sports)

📌 How College Pitching Labs Build Aces (The Athletic)

📌 Ranking the Spring Breakout Prospects (ESPN)