Editors Note: This is the latest in our player profile in our 40-man breakdown series that we have started here at the Nats Report. Check out other of our prospect player profiles.

Víctor Robles

• Position:  Center Field
• Current status: Free agent in 2025
• How acquired:  International amateur free agent signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2013
• 2023 Grade: C+
• 2024 Opening Day Projection: Starting CF
• 2023 stats: 36 G/126 PA, .299/.385/.364, 6 2/3BH, 0 HR, 15 R, 8 RBI, 8.7 BB%/14.3 K%, 112 wRC+, 8 SB/1 CS, 0.4 fWAR

2023 Analysis

Robles’ 2023 season out of the gate seemed to genuinely be breathing new life into his career. He reached base three times Opening Day versus Atlanta, and had a .900 OPS as late as his 12th game of the year. Obviously, small sample sizes ultimately don’t mean anything, but underlying numbers still showed positives. Per Fangraphs, Robles’ plate discipline numbers and swing decisions were almost across the board career-bests. He was swinging at more pitches in the zone, chasing fewer pitches out of the zone, missing the ball less, and making contact more. His overall called + swinging strike rate plummeted from 27.5% in 2022 to 19.5% in 2023.

Then the injury bug bit him. Robles hurt his back sliding into second base during the Nationals’ May 6 game in Arizona and hit the injured list. He returned in mid-June, but although he recorded a hit in all of his next five games, he continued experiencing discomfort and was shelved again. Víctor still has not played a big league game since then.

2024 outlook

Situations like these are tough to really predict. Robles is still just 26 and resides at an age where many players still haven’t hit their peak; yet, this might just be his final proving ground with the team, as he’s accrued 5 years of Major League service time to this point and will reach free agency (barring a highly-unlikely extension) at season’s end. A week ago, Mark Zuckerman reported that the Opening Day center field job will be a battle between Robles and the rookie Jacob Young, who was called up to fill in after the Derek Hill and Alex Call plans were ultimately deemed failures. Young provides a similar caliber of center field defense to what we have come to expect from Robles, while also being younger and less of a perceived injury risk. Robles, on the other hand, did show marked improvements in his plate approach that saw him making more contact than he ever had before in his big league career.

In the field, however, Víctor started to struggle, posting negative marks in Defensive Runs Saved (-10), Ultimate Zone Rating (-4.9), and Statcast Outs Above Average (-3) for the first time since the shortened 2020 season. Defense has always been a key part of Robles’ game, and with Lane Thomas starting in right field along with Joey Gallo, Alex Call, and Stone Garrett all looking to see time in left field, a move to either corner feels infeasible, and there isn’t a lot of room for him to get time as the designated hitter. Bottom line: if what we saw from Robles at the plate in 36 games last year was real, if he’s healthy, if his defense returns to 2022 form—should all that come together, Robles could look like an actual big league center fielder. You’ll just have to forgive me if I have a few doubts as to whether or not it will actually happen. I still think, though, that Robles is the favorite to earn the starting center field job on Opening Day, with both Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez likely wanting to get a real look at what they’ve actually got.

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