At first glance, Andrew Alvarez’s 2-7 record this season doesn’t stand out. But a deeper look reveals a pitcher who has quietly built an impressive body of work for the Rochester Red Wings.
On a cold and snowy Media Day back in March at Innovative Field, Manager Matt LeCroy named Alvarez his Opening Day starter in Buffalo. The decision didn’t surprise those who had watched the left-hander the previous season. Sure enough, Alvarez delivered: 5 innings, one unearned run, just two hits allowed, two walks, and six strikeouts. When he exited in the 6th, Rochester led 2-1, poised to give him his first win. Instead, the bullpen faltered, giving up four runs, and the Red Wings lost 6-2. That cruel pattern—strong outings spoiled by lost leads—would define much of Alvarez’s season, as he wouldn’t notch his first win until July 29.
Path to the Pros
Alvarez, drafted by the Nationals in the 12th round of the 2021 MLB Draft, pitched three seasons at Cal Poly. He began his college career in the bullpen before joining the weekend rotation as a junior, posting a 7-3 record, a 4.08 ERA, and 81 strikeouts in 88 innings. Washington initially kept him in relief as well before allowing him to transition back to starting.
That move paid off. In 2023, Alvarez emerged as one of the organization’s top pitching prospects. After a difficult 2022 in Wilmington, he rebounded to go 7-4 with a sparkling 2.61 ERA in 21 appearances (18 starts). Across 103 innings, he struck out 96 while allowing just 32 walks, an impressive 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Promoted to Harrisburg late that season, his won-loss record dipped (0-3), but he still managed an ERA just over 4.0. Overall, Alvarez cut more than two runs off his ERA from the previous year, held opponents to a .229 batting average, and became the first Nationals pitcher since 2018 to post an ERA below 3.00. For his turnaround, he was named Washington’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year.
Rising Through the System
Alvarez opened 2024 back in Harrisburg, starting 10 games and going 4-2 with a 2.89 ERA, 53 strikeouts, and a complete game in 53 innings. Promoted in June, his AAA debut with Rochester came against a red-hot Scranton RailRiders lineup that had scored double digits in four straight games. Alvarez rose to the moment, tossing 4 shutout innings in front of a weary bullpen. He would go on to make 16 starts for Rochester, finishing 4-7 with a 4.58 ERA.
Pitching Profile
Alvarez features a four-seam fastball with late cutting action at 94–95 mph—5 mph harder than last year—and a sinking two-seamer that generates plenty of ground balls. He leads the International League in inducing double plays. His sweeping curveball, delivered at varying velocities from the low-70s to the mid-80s, gives left-handed hitters fits, while his ability to change arm angles adds deception. Against lefties this year, opponents are hitting just .182. He also owns an excellent pickoff move, keeping runners close and erasing 10 would-be base stealers.
2025 Season with Rochester
Now in his second full year at AAA, Alvarez has proven durable and consistent, taking the ball every fifth game as Rochester’s rotation anchor. He has started 24 games this season and leads the staff in innings pitched and strikeouts. Though his overall line shows a 2-7 record with a 4.15 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, those numbers don’t tell the whole story: in 10 of his starts, he’s left with a lead only to see the bullpen let it slip. With average support, his record could easily sit closer to .500.
His month-to-month progress speaks for itself. After finishing May with an ERA north of 4.50, he posted a 3.76 ERA in June, 4.03 in July, and a sharp 2.22 in August. Since late July, he’s 2-0, highlighted by a strong outing against Syracuse, where he overcame a rocky first inning to strike out eight across six innings, allowing just one hit and 1 walk the rest of the way. With runners in scoring position, he bears down—holding opponents to just a .071 batting average when a runner stands on third.
Major League Outlook
Whether as a starter or reliever, Alvarez deserves a serious look from Washington. His ability to change speeds, vary eye levels, and attack left-handed batters gives him versatility valuable in both roles. Durable, consistent, and trending upward, Andrew Alvarez brings far more to the Nationals’ organization than his win-loss record suggests.