Washington Nationals’ Farm System Rebound: Why Player Development Offers New Hope

Five years ago, the Washington Nationals and Rochester Red Wings began a 10-year partnership as AAA affiliates. In 2021, the Nationals’ farm system ranked dead last among all major league organizations, and their Rochester squad finished at the bottom of the International League with a 49-77 record. That year’s roster included former Washington first-rounders Andrew Stevenson and Seth Romero, and late in the season, Keibert Ruiz and Lane Thomas joined Rochester before quickly advancing to the majors.

Over five seasons in Rochester, the Nationals have managed only one winning year—2024, when blue-chip prospect James Wood started the season there. Still, the organization’s efforts to build from within have shown progress: by 2023, the Nationals’ system had climbed into MLB’s top ten farm rankings, thanks largely to the blockbuster Juan Soto trade that brought James Wood, CJ Abrams, Luke Voit, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, and Jarlin Susana to Washington. All but Voit and Susana have played in Rochester, and Susana is likely to suit up in AAA next season.

Sustained contention remains challenging for Washington without a solid minor league foundation to provide vital depth. As a Rochester Red Wings fan and season ticket holder, optimism feels justified this year, especially with Paul Toboni now running baseball operations. The Nationals sorely needed a scouting overhaul—Toboni’s specialty. Washington’s draft record from 2009 to 2011 (Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon) set a high bar, but since then, reliance on free agency brought short-term gains (notably, the 2019 World Series) while depleting prospect depth. In modern baseball, missing on first-round picks can cripple a franchise’s future.

The three picks from 2016 to 2018 are no longer with the organization, while Rutledge, Cavalli, House, and Crews have reached the big leagues—time will tell if they become true “game changers.” Seaver King is performing well in the Arizona Fall League and sits on the AA roster, and newly-drafted Eli Willits is just starting his journey.

Toboni has revamped the scouting department and reshaped much of the front office—a welcome change. Coming from a Boston Red Sox organization known for consistent farm system success, Toboni’s approach could finally give the Nationals the foundation they've been missing.

In 2021, the Rochester coaching staff included Manager Matt LeCroy, Hitting Coach Brian Daubach, and Pitching Coach Rafael Chavez. The addition of Associate Head Coach Billy McMillan brought the number to four, which has remained unchanged. These coaches work hard, but with a roster that cycled through 69 players last year, more instructional staff is clearly needed. Both AAA and lower affiliates (A, A+, AA) operate with four coaches apiece—just 16 total throughout the system. By comparison, the Dodgers have eight coaches with their AAA Oklahoma City club, and Toronto deploys seven in Buffalo and 25 across all affiliates.

Effective player development requires more than talent acquisition; it demands comprehensive instruction. Rochester could benefit from a second pitching coach—one for the rotation, another focusing on the bullpen. Relief pitching remains a consistent weakness for both Rochester and Washington. Most AAA teams staff two hitting coaches, and adding a base-running coach (who could also coach first base in games) would be a modern, crucial step. Notably, Rochester is the only AAA club where players coach first base themselves—a cost-saving measure, but a developmental disadvantage.

With Paul Toboni steering the Nationals’ ship, the organization is finally moving in the right direction. Enhanced coaching and a renewed commitment to scouting are essential steps in giving the next wave of Nationals the instruction and support needed to reach their potential.