The second half of the 2023 season is underway. A lot has happened so far this season, and this team is surprisingly better than the record suggests. A few bullpen meltdowns hurt the team, but the team has outperformed expectations heading into the season. So let’s dive into potential storylines and changes to be made in the second half.

Keibert Ruiz

It is no secret that Keibert Ruiz has struggled this season. His negative -19 Fielding Run-Value (which is an improvement since the All-Star break) is rated as the worst in the majors according to Baseball Savant. The next worst catcher is Martín Maldonado with a -8 FRV.

Additionally, Statcast pegs him as the third biggest underperformer between his results and expected statistics, behind Michael Massey and Ryan Mountcastle. If he performed to his expected statistics, Ruiz would be an above-average hitter. Ruiz has caught in 71 of the Nationals’ 92 games. It may be time to give him more rest from behind the plate and allow Riley Adams to handle more of the staff.

Even as I am writing this, Ruiz is having a phenomenal series against the Cubs and is starting to trend in the right direction. He and the other young players on the team taking leaps forward validates any record the Nationals end up with this season.

Jeimer Candelario

Jeimer Candelario should not be a Washington National on August 2. The position player rental market is extremely thin this season, and Jeimer Candelario is having an incredible season with the Nationals. Through July 17th, his .826 OPS ranks sixth among qualified third basemen. Of those above him, only one has a higher FRV than him, José Ramírez.

It makes perfect sense to trade him. He’s on a one-year, $5M deal. The return will strengthen the farm. Brady House just climbed another step closer to the big leagues, and Candelario’s absence allows the Nationals to get a look at Jake Alu and Trey Lipscomb until House’s arrival.

Corey Dickerson and Blake Rutherford

Dickerson also shouldn’t be a National on August 2. The likelihood that he gets moved in a deal is slim, but Ehire Adrianza got traded last year so never say never. While I am not 100% sure the Nationals would designate him for assignment after the deadline, they absolutely should.

The Nationals have former first-round pick Blake Rutherford sitting in Triple-A. In the high minors this season, Rutherford has hit .340/.398/.599 in 221 plate appearances. Did he potentially figure it out at age 26? Maybe, maybe not, but the Nationals stand for much more to gain by giving Rutherford a look in the majors than by trotting Dickerson out.

Kyle Finnegan and Lane Thomas

Trading a National with multiple years of control has been a hot issue as of late. Whether that be Lane Thomas, Kyle Finnegan, or Hunter Harvey (that one is not happening with him now on the injured list), there is a reasonable argument to be made that one or all of these guys are traded. There is an equally reasonable argument to keep them.

Thomas has had a breakout season of sorts, having an All-Star-caliber first half. Theoretically, his value couldn’t be higher. This breakout though, comes with some level of skepticism. Where Ruiz is a massive underperformer, Thomas has been one of baseball’s best overperformers. A player can consistently overperform these metrics, but to the level that Thomas has is not. Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo has come out and said he views Thomas as an everyday player and I think a good portion of buyers may have some skepticism. The Nats likely won’t get a package that they like. That is ok though. When glancing at the near future of the franchise, the Nationals have three near-ready outfield prospects James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Robert Hassell III. Right-handed Thomas is a nice compliment to the left-handed Hassell and allows the Nationals to form one of the scarier outfield groups in the majors.

Finnegan on the other hand, should be traded. The deadline market is relatively thin, especially with one of the better options in Aroldis Chapman already being moved. The Nationals will never have a better opportunity to trade Finnegan, who while not being a true closer, is still a very good reliever. Trading Finnegan seems like a no-brainer. While certainly not the best reliever, his 3.32 ERA is tied for 82nd among qualified relievers, he is primed for positive regression. A team with solid infield defense would be a really strong fit.

Prospects and 2024

The Nationals farm system has been a mixed bag so far this season. Prospects like Jeremy De La Rosa, Robert Hassell III, and Elijah Green have trended in the wrong direction. Others have had their prospect status climb, like Brady House, Daylen Lile, and Jake Bennett. House has re-established himself as a top prospect in baseball after playing through a back injury last season, climbing from Low-A Fredericksburg to Double-A Harrisburg. Lile hit .291/.381/.510 with Fredericksburg and just earned a promotion to High-A Wilmington. Bennett has the FIP and third-lowest ERA among any minor league pitcher with at least 55 innings pitched.

These next couple of seasons should allow the Nationals to take advantage of the new Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI). The PPI allows teams with players who win Rookie of the Year and have 172 days of service time (very shortly after Opening Day) to gain an extra pick in the MLB Draft between the first and second rounds. James Wood seems like a prime candidate for the Nats to capitalize on. After that, the Nats could use Brady House to get a pick in 2025. Not necessarily a guarantee, but something to look forward to ahead.

Speaking of prospects, the Nationals added some pretty good ones in the MLB Draft. Dylan Crews is a potential center fielder who will hit for average and power and won the Golden Spikes Award and SEC Player of the Year. Third baseman Yohandy Morales was one of the better hitters in the ACC and immediately becomes one of the better power bats in the Nationals system. High schooler Travis Sykora adds another power arm to the system with his 101 mph fastball. All were potential first-rounders, so an absolute haul for the Nationals.

The Nats are positioned to lose a lot of games in this second half. That is ok though, as the progression of the young core outweighs any record the Nationals end with this season.