According to Fan Graphs, the Washington Nationals have a 4.1% at making the 2022 Playoffs and a 3.7% chance of making the wild card spot. Also, the Nationals have a 0.4% to win the NL East.

According to Fan Graphs, they take into account the new 12-team playoff structure. Here is how Fan Graphs define each category in their playoff odds:

Win Div – The probability the team wins their division

Clinch Bye – The probability that the team wins their division and is one of the top two seeds in their league, thus earning a Wild Card Series bye

Clinch Wild Card – The probability the team qualifies for the playoffs through a Wild Card berth

Make Playoffs – The sum of Win Div + Clinch Wild Card, indicating the probability that the team qualifies for the playoff in any capacity

Make LDS (Postseason section) – The probability the team wins the Wild Card Series or earns a bye.

Read more about the new formulas here.