CJ Abrams swinging the bat well isn’t new to Nationals fans. We’ve seen the left-handed shortstop go through stretches of hitting for both contact and power. However, sustained success has been elusive. Over the last two years, those ups and downs have resulted in a 106 wRC+ in 2024 and a 107 wRC+ in 2025. This April, he is on another heater, posting a 195 wRC+ through Saturday’s action.

The pragmatists may say we’ve seen this before and that it won’t last. While I agree he will cool down Aaron Judge is the only player in MLB who can sustain a ~200 wRC+ there are real signs that Abrams can maintain positive results and be much more than a league-average bat. Let’s break down the key areas that suggest this improvement is sustainable.

What has Happened Before?

As said, we have seen CJ Abrams look like the best hitter in baseball before, only to come crashing down. While 2025 had some of these peaks and valleys, 2024 may be the best place to look first.

CJ Abrams had two months of ~1.000 OPS or higher followed by two months with a sub.600 OPS. That is going from Aaron Judge level productions to below replacement level. To examine what went wrong, let’s go look at his data. We will examine his horrid May followed by his hot June.

There are a few clear indicators of regression. Abrams has never consistently drawn walks, with a career-best 6.6% walk rate in 2024. While being an aggressive hitter isn’t inherently bad, going too far can lead to poor counts. Poor counts lead to worse pitches to hit and more swing-and-miss. A 20% swing in K-BB% is a massive shift, and while fluctuations are expected, this level of drop-off is concerning.

Another major difference is his pull air rate. While Abrams still made similar-quality contact, he is at his best when pulling the ball to right field. For most hitters, wOBA and xwOBA improve when pulling the ball. Maintaining the right bat path has been an issue for Abrams early in his career, and it’s something improved coaching could help stabilize.

1. The Heart of the Plate

Every hitter should look to do damage in the strike zone, especially over the heart of the plate. In the past, Abrams swung too often at pitches on the edges or outside the zone, leading to weak contact. This year, he has been far more aggressive in the heart of the zone.

From 2025 to 2026, his heart swing percentage and heart contact percentage have increased by 6.6% and 6.9%, respectively. This means Abrams is swinging more often at pitches over the middle and making more contact when he does.

As seen in the data, his swing rate has increased significantly in the middle and lower parts of the zone, areas that are easier to drive. His xwOBA has also improved in these regions, indicating stronger quality of contact. Even if results fluctuate, consistently attacking these zones should reduce prolonged slumps.

2. Take Your Base

Abrams remains an aggressive hitter, and that’s not likely to change. While drawing walks is valuable, you still want hitters who attack pitches in the zone. Abrams isn’t chasing significantly less, but he is making more contact, leading to more foul balls and longer at-bats.

As a result, his walk rate has nearly doubled from 5.8% to 11.5%. While that number may regress, maintaining anything above 8% would represent meaningful improvement.

3. Turn it and Burn it

Unless you are someone like James Wood, Juan Soto, or Aaron Judge, the best way to generate power is by pulling the ball in the air. When Abrams is at his best, this is exactly what he does.

However, his pull air rates have fluctuated: 13.5% in 2023, 18.2% in 2024, and 16.6% in 2025. Currently, he is at 21.7%. Combined with improvements in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, Abrams is putting far more dangerous balls in play.

While the Nationals have received contributions throughout the lineup, a consistent CJ Abrams gives this offense its best chance to remain productive alongside James Wood. Home runs win games, and Abrams is one of the team’s best at elevating the ball.

While players like Wood, Brady House, and Joey Wiemer may hit the ball harder, Abrams may have the most consistent power-oriented swing on the roster outside of Wood.

Abrams also impacts the game beyond the batter’s box. He is one of the fastest players in the league. Although the stolen bases haven’t been there early this season, he has recorded three consecutive 30+ steal seasons. Even without steals, his speed allows him to take extra bases, creating more scoring opportunities. This makes an OBP closer to .400 rather than .300 especially valuable.

At just 25 years old, Abrams has the potential to be a long-term fixture in the Nationals lineup. With three more years of team control, there is no immediate need to move him. He will also reach free agency at just 28, making him a strong candidate for a long-term deal. While sustained performance will increase his value, there is still a realistic path where his contract aligns well with the timeline of prospects like Seaver King and others approaching the majors.

It is still only April, so there is plenty of time for regression. Abrams has also had both on-field and off-field inconsistencies, raising questions about focus. However, he has taken accountability, and as a 25-year-old, is showing signs of maturity.

CJ Abrams has always had the tools to be one of the better players in the league. If he maintains the improvements discussed here, he may finally begin to fully realize that potential.