Washington Nationals Roster Building for the Future, Part 3

Editors Note: This is part of a three-part series. Read Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

In Part 1, we covered possible 40-man roster movement between now and December, examined the payroll and the Nats' immense flexibility without coming close to the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold of $241M (even with Stephen Strasburg still on the payroll for two more seasons!).

In Part 2 we made our first move in free agency. We talked about the deepest well of prospect capital that the Nats have ever assembled and how that well could be used to fill a big hole on the roster in an otherwise cost-effective way while Strasburg's $35M still counts towards the payroll. Today, before going through some contingency and backup plans, we will lay out the case for taking a big swing in free agency to fill the final empty spot on the roster, one that will also fill the empty spot in the hearts of almost all Nats fans. Yes, it is time.

Free Agency, Part Two: Bring. Him. Home.

The perfect solution to the Nats' offensive woes is, yes, none other than Juan Soto himself. I still believe the Yankees are the favorites to sign him this winter, because he has had an MVP-caliber season batting in front of Aaron Judge and after all, what Dominican boy does not grow up dreaming of playing in pinstripes? But the Yankees of Hal Steinbrenner are different than the Yankees of George Steinbrenner - with George alive the Yankees would be prohibitive favorites over the rest of the field combined.

I would honestly rate the Nationals as the second-most likely team to sign Soto this winter. He still talks fondly of his time in DC, prefers to remain close to or on the East Coast, and I think knows that he would mean much much more to this fanbase were he to return than to any other.

For all those reasons I think the field for Soto's services effectively boils down to the following teams, in order: 1) Yankees; 2) Nationals; 3) Mets (if you want to move Steve Cohen ahead of the Lerners I won't argue very hard with you, but I do think the history matters for something here); 4) Blue Jays (a sneaky dark horse - they have money and could sell him on playing with his buddy Vlad); 5) Rangers (I don't see Soto signing up for a decade-plus of Globe Life Park, but money talks, and they are generally willing to spend it); 6) Phillies (never underestimate Dave Dombrowski paired with an owner willing to fully open his wallet, but the Phillies are bumping against the CBT already); 7) Cubs; 8) Red Sox (they would be much higher if their owners remembered that they owned a baseball team and not just Liverpool - Soto would be lethal playing half his home games in Fenway); 9) Orioles (this low both because I have no idea of what new owner David Rubenstein will be like in free agency and because they will have to think about paying a lot of their young guys pretty soon - and they are still deemed a small market even though for the moment they control the television revenue of two markets); and 10) Astros (I don't really see it happening, but their front office is a total wild card). Nobody else is really in the picture.

What will signing Soto take? Well, we already know that he turned down fifteen years and $440 million two years ago on the advice of agent Scott Boras, a decision that looks wise in hindsight; the $29.33M AAV of that proposed deal would rank 15th in baseball this year, while over his final two years of arbitration Soto has set consecutive records and banked $54 million. Since he is a two-way unicorn, I don't think Shohei Ohtani's $700M total is particularly instructive here, but I do think Boras will be looking to beat the net present value (NPV) of $46.7M because so much of Ohtani's money is deferred. There are five players making $40M or more this season, and none of them are durable 26-year-olds just entering their athletic prime whose top ten player comparisons through last season include eight current or future Hall of Famers. Soto has played in 888 of a possible 938 games since his 2018 debut, with 13 of those missed 50 the result of his (probable) false positive COVID test at the start of the shortened 2020 season. No hitter on the planet has better command of the strike zone, and even in a "down" year you are effectively guaranteed something better than a 140 wRC+ and possibly 200 or more. He is a mediocre outfielder at best but on this team could play first or DH - I maintain that he would love playing first base and talking to guys all game. His skill set should age well unless he comes down with a freak eye disease that irreparably affects his vision.

Twelve years and $565M (with no deferrals) gets Soto and Boras all of the non-Shohei records and the relevant Shohei-inclusive one, taking Soto through his age-37 season in a curly W. If the Lerners were to insist on including deferrals, I could see a final number being north of $600M, but I'm not interested in working out all the kinks on those - we're approaching 6000 words in this three-parter already and I would be writing for an audience of maybe six people (h/t Stever, Ghost, Sao, NYNat, and DonH...okay, maybe just five). We're going with 12/$565M! And with that, it's time to update the 40-man roster, payroll ($165M before benefits, $183M with them), and take a peek at what the 26-man roster, lineup, rotation, bench, and bullpen would look like.

SP (11): Sandy Alcántara, Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz, Cade Cavalli, Andry Lara, Andrew Alvarez, Rodney Theophile, Dustin Saenz
RP (11): Kyle Finnegan, Yimi García, Robert Garcia, Derek Law, Jose A. Ferrer, Zach Brzykcy, Joan Adon, Orlando Ribalta, Jackson Rutledge, Eduardo Salazar, Carlos Romero
C (3): Keibert Ruiz, Riley Adams, Drew Millas
IF (9): Juan Yepez, CJ Abrams, Luis García Jr., Juan Soto, Brady House, Trey Lipscomb, Ildemaro Vargas, Nasim Nuñez, José Tena
OF/DH (6): James Wood, Dylan Crews, Jacob Young, Andrés Chaparro, Robert Hassell III, Stone Garrett

OD Rotation: #1 Alcántara, #2 Gore, #3 Irvin, #4 Herz, #5 Parker
OD Bullpen: CL Finnegan, SU Y. García, SU Brzykcy, R. García, Ferrer, Rutledge, Law, Adon
OD Lineup: SS Abrams, RF Crews, 1B Soto, 2B García Jr, LF Wood, 3B House, DH Yepez, C Ruiz, CF Young
OD Bench: Adams, Vargas, Tena, Garrett

That's a pretty good team. Against tough southpaws, you might want to shuffle House or Yepez in there among the three lefties in the middle of the lineup, but overall, that group should score some runs and prevent enough to win more games than they lose. Can it challenge Atlanta and Philly for NL East supremacy? That will depend on how quickly Wood, Crews, and House get up to speed, whether or not Abrams can smooth out some of his monthly extremes, and, of course, whether or not they can pull off any or all of these moves in the first place.

Got a Backup Plan?

Only one team, of course, can sign Juan Soto. There is no guarantee that either a) the Lerners will go from their "marquee signing" of 2023-24 being Nick Senzel to Juan Freaking Soto in twelve months or b) that one of those other teams won't simply outbid whatever the Nats do offer him. That means they need to have several strategies and fallback plans in place in what could be a fairly robust winter market for both free agents and trades. Let's look at some of the other names that could make sense (with their 2025 age in parentheses):

Free Agent RHRP: Carlos Estévez (32), Dylan Floro (34), Luis García (38), Clay Holmes (32), Jakob Junis (32), Andrew Kittredge (35), José Leclerc (31), Shelby Miller (34), Ryan Pressly (36)
Free Agent LHRP: A.J. Minter (31), Tanner Scott (30), Ryan Yarbrough (33)

There are dozens of relievers available in free agency this winter, but I tried to winnow the list to guys who were mostly not too old (García is a bit of an outlier) and had demonstrated competence this season. We already partially covered starters earlier, but once again, here is the list of interesting names:

Free Agent RHSP: Shane Bieber (30), Walker Buehler (30), Corbin Burnes (30), Nate Eovaldi (35, if he doesn't hit his vesting option of 156 IP), Jack Flaherty (29), Lucas Giolito (30, complicated option/buyout situation with the Red Sox) , Frankie Montas (32), Nick Pivetta (32), Colin Rea (34), Max Scherzer (40), Luis Severino (31), Michael Wacha (33), Trevor Williams (33)
Free Agent LHSP: Max Fried (31), Yusei Kikuchi (34), Sean Manaea (33), Jordan Montgomery (32), James Paxton (35), José Quintana (36), Robbie Ray (33), Blake Snell (32)

Burnes, Snell, Fried, and possibly Ray and Bieber are likely going to be the most expensive tier, followed by Kikuchi, Eovaldi, Flaherty, Pivetta, Severino, and maybe Wacha and Manaea, followed by the rest. Our old friend Scherzer is an interesting case; he's still extremely effective when he can pitch, but availability is a concern. I wonder if he might retire or convert to a closer in his old age (he's a year younger than I am). There are red flags or at least potential red flags for everyone on this list, but if the Nats are not going to play in the deepest waters, I would probably be most interested in Pivetta or Severino. Let's look at hitters, starting with the most glaring hole at first base:

Free Agent 1B: Pete Alonso (30), Josh Bell (32), Cody Bellinger (29, opt-out), Carlos Santana (39), Justin Turner (40), Christian Walker (34)

Yikes. Alonso is a one-trick pony who adds next to nothing besides his prodigious power. Bell looks like he is in clear decline, although perhaps getting out of the Miami sinkhole will give him a boost. Bellinger, Santana, and Turner no longer hit for much, if any, power, which happens to be the Nationals' biggest offensive need. That leaves Walker as the only truly palatable option. Are there other hitters?

Free Agent SS: Willy Adames (29), Ha-Seong Kim (29)
Free Agent 3B: Matt Chapman (32)
Free Agent OF: Teoscar Hernández (32), Eloy Jímenez (28), Anthony Santander (30), Jesse Winker (31)

Adames and Kim are here in case the Nats decide to take stock of Abrams' bad defensive numbers and, say, move him to center field (making Jacob Young the fourth outfielder). Chapman would be insurance for House, or presage a move across the diamond for either one of them. Any of the four listed outfielders would be mid-range to high-end DH options to boost the lineup in the short term. Thus free agency.

Beyond the already-discussed Garrett Crochet and Alcántara, what potentially attractive players might be made available in trades by bad teams this winter, by teams that might want to reset/rebuild, or by teams who otherwise fear that they might not be able to re-sign those players in free agency? This time parentheses will include not just their age but the next season they are eligible for free agency, assuming all options are picked up.

Potentially on the Block: LAA LHSP Tyler Anderson (35, 2026), TOR RHSP Chris Bassitt (36, 2026), TOR RHSP José Berríos (31, 2029), SEA RHSP Luis Castillo (32, 2028), TAM 1B Yandy Díaz (34, 2027), TOR RHSP Kevin Gausman (34, 2027), TOR RHRP Chad Green (34, 2026), TOR 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26, 2026), TAM 2B/DH Brandon Lowe (30, 2027), TAM LHSP Shane McClanahan (28, 2028), OAK RHRP Mason Miller (26, 2030), OAK DH Brent Rooker (30, 2028), NYY DH Giancarlo Stanton (35, 2029), HOU OF Kyle Tucker (28, 2026)

Among the pitchers, the closest comp to Alcántara is McClanahan (he's even on the same timeline in his TJ recovery process), who will probably cost close to the same amount in prospect capital because although he has less of a track record than the Marlins ace he is a year younger and considerably cheaper ($3.6M next year with two years of arbitration after that). Rooker would be an attractive consolation prize to missing out on Soto; despite playing half his games in the Oakland Coliseum (a home run graveyard) he has 58 bombs over the past two seasons. Although Castillo helps anchor a strong rotation for a competitive team, Jerry DiPoto is not nicknamed Trader Jerry for nothing. He could try to turn some of the Mariners' inexhaustible pitching depth into quality bats. Lowe has two team options totaling $22M through 2026 and could benefit health-wise from being a regular DH; he always hits. Tucker has just a year to go before free agency and it is possible that the Astros trade him if they feel like they will not re-sign him. Stanton would either be a salary dump (he still boasts elite exit velocities - when he hits the ball) with a prospect attached or would come essentially for free; the Marlins are already paying $30M of the $86M remaining on his contract, including the buyout of his 2028 team option, and the Yankees might be willing to pay much of the rest in order to move him. Finally, there is a quartet of Blue Jays on here because they very well might look around and blow it up this winter, especially if they can neither sign Soto nor extend Vladdy.

Whew, that is a lot to digest! To close, I will offer my top six choices at each of the three biggest holes on the roster, regardless of whether or not they would come via free agency or trade:

Bullpen Help: 1) Yimi García, 2) Mason Miller, 3) Tanner Scott, 4) José Leclerc, 5) Ryan Yarbrough, 6) Shelby Miller

Rotation Stud or Workhorse: 1) Sandy Alcántara, 2) Shane McClanahan, 3) Nick Pivetta, 4) Luis Severino, 5) Luis Castillo, 6) Shane Bieber (I think I'm out on the $35-$40M per year it would take to get Burnes, and I think the Lerners will be too)

Lineup Anchor: 1) Juan Soto, 2) Christian Walker, 3) Brent Rooker, 4) Teoscar Hernández, 5) Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 6) Anthony Santander

There you have it. Now you are about as fully informed as you can be, and all that remains is to see how aggressive the Lerners allow Rizzo to be in free agency. Let us hope that they open the throttle and we see a playoff-worthy team take the field in 2025!