Should the Nationals Trade for Jordan Montgomery?

If I had to name a couple of people who are the happiest to know that the year 2024 is almost behind them, one of those names would be Jordan Montgomery. Recently, the Arizona Diamondbacks' owner, Ken Kendrick, said that signing Montgomery was the biggest mistake of the season, and it was his fault. However, despite the Diamondbacks' public displeasure with his recent performance, Montgomery decided to vest his $22.5 million player option in his contract.

Resulting from this, the Diamondbacks have already committed to eating part of his salary so they could find a willing trade partner, thus not making him overly expensive. Regarding the Nationals, I personally believe this could be a good fit and a win for both parties involved (Montgomery and the Nationals).

On the surface, I can see where one would think this is a bad idea, as he finished the 2024 season with a 6.23 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, and accumulating WAR (wins above replacement) of -1.4. But I personally believe that last season was an anomaly for Montgomery and not the norm. In his career, Montgomery pitched for a career ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 1.268, which is much better than his 2024 season numbers, thus making him due for some progression to the mean type of season.

I also believe his career numbers understate his normal production. Over the course of eight seasons, the only seasons he pitched for an ERA that is higher than his career average were in the 2019, 2020, and 2024 seasons, which, I also think, were out of the norm. In 2019, Montgomery battled injuries. The 2020 season was a COVID-shortened season, and in the 2024 season, Montgomery didn't sign with a team until March 29th (the day after opening day), causing him to miss all of spring training. He then fired his agent after a disastrous offseason, which I think had some adverse effects on his focus and concentration. 

They say baseball is a mental game, and I think the previous offseason disappointment and his agent's handling of his contracts were more responsible for last year's lackluster performance, as opposed to it being something physical. Normally, he pitches for an ERA in the mid-3s, and I think having a full offseason to prepare, get in shape, and just allow him to focus on baseball would have him due for some progression to the mean.

Other than a progression to the mean type of season and off-field distractions no longer being a factor, I think another reason that a trade with the Nationals could be a good idea is due to what happened to Dylan Floro last season. Last year, the Washington Nationals signed Floro to a one-year contract, and, with the Nationals, Floro came out of the pen to pitch 52.1 innings in 51 games while posting an ERA of 2.06 and a WHIP of 1.051. In fact, he pitched so well for the Nationals that they ended up trading him to the Diamondbacks for prospect Andres Chaparro. However, with the Diamondbacks, Floro was unable to duplicate that success and struggled mightily, which ultimately led to his outright release in September.

I personally think one of the reasons Floro pitched better for the Nationals than he did with Arizona was because of the Nationals' pitching strategist, Sean Doolittle. I personally think Doolittle could help fix Montgomery and have him produce the way he did in 2023 when he helped the Texas Rangers win their first World Series.

 I think the difference in production one saw from Floro when he pitched with Washington to the Floro who pitched in Arizona can also happen with Montgomery. However, instead of pitching well in Washington and poorly in Arizona, as did Floro, Montgomery pitched poorly in Arizona and then well in Washington after he was traded from Arizona to the Nationals.

Lastly, I think trading for Montgomery could be savvy due to the fact that the Nationals probably won't have to give up much to acquire him since the Diamondbacks are already making concessions before any type of negotiation has even started.

Starting pitchers finding new life with other clubs is not new to baseball. Jack Flaherty struggled with the Cardinals and the Orioles in 2023 to find new life in Detroit and Los Angeles in 2024. The same also happened for Yusei Kikuchi, who posted a 4.75 ERA with Toronto in 2024, only to be traded to Houston and post an ERA of 2.70 and help Houston win the AL West division. These types of turnarounds are common in the MLB, and one can happen in Washington.

I am not saying that the Nationals should trade for Montgomery. I am just making the argument that a trade is worth looking into and could potentially work. Especially if the Nationals are looking for a veteran pitcher, and in this case, Montgomery has eight seasons under his belt and a World Series ring to boot. So, if I were Mike Rizzo, I would at least inquire the Diamondbacks about making a trade.

Let us know what you think, and comment below.