The Nats Report's Top Ten Washington Nationals MLB Prospects

Welcome to our second annual Nats Report Top Prospect list. Last year's version was extremely successful, so we thought we would update it.

Today, we're unveiling the Top Ten best prospects in the Washington Nationals system entering 2025. Over the next few days, we will be going in-depth into the top Washington Nationals prospects

Our Methodology - Owen Ranger

While I am not a professional scout, I do have a coaching background in baseball (ten seasons' worth, plus four more of softball), and a fun fact is that one of my former players DID go on to have a professional scouting career (shout out to Kinza Baad of the Pirates, one of the very few women in pro baseball scouting - not that I can take any credit for her adult career). So, while I cannot claim to be an expert, I know what I want. I have seen twenty of the fifty live and all of the rest at least a little bit on film, with the Dominican Summer League players (six) and 2024 high school and pitching draftees (four) being the hardest to find.

I would say that I probably value performance - certainly at higher levels - a little more than projection, at least compared to, say, Keith Law or Baseball Prospectus. While I don't just "scout the stat line," I care about the results, particularly if sustained over a large sample size. Age relative to level matters a lot; Phillip Glasser dominating low-A and conquering high-A as a 24-year-old was not necessarily super-impressive, while 20-year-old T.J. White taking a year and a half to finally get going at high-A earns more grace.

However, considering age, it is also worth remembering that pitchers and (especially) catchers develop later than other positions. Where guys play matters; Wilmington, home of the Nats' high-A affiliate, has one of the worst parks for power in all of affiliated baseball (particularly for right-handed hitters - a big reason for why Dylan Crews skipped playing there), and the entire Eastern League (home of the AA Harrisburg Senators) is very pitcher-friendly. In contrast, AAA Rochester and the International League generally are much kinder to hitters. This is where wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) is a helpful tool for measuring where hitters are relative to their level; unfortunately, Fangraphs does not provide ERA- or FIP- for minor league pitchers.

Finally, the great unknown is the organization's ability to develop players. Up until very recently, the Nationals had a terrible track record when it came to developing all but the very best prospects; this year, Jake Irvin became the first player drafted later than the first round to surpass 2.0 bWAR in a Nats jersey since Michael A. Taylor, who was a sixth-round pick back in 2009. For years, the development philosophy appeared to be "draft the most freakish athlete on the board and see if they can figure it out." Irvin is unquestionably the best pitcher the Nationals have developed since Stephen Strasburg, and catching has been an unmitigated disaster (Pedro Severino being the best). The "stars and scrubs" model that Rizzo and right-hand man Kris Kline subscribed to for years yielded a Mount Rushmore of Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Soto but a relative lack after that - the rest of the homegrown top ten before 2024 would include Drew Storen, Erick Fedde, Taylor, Víctor Robles, Luis García Jr., and Irvin.

Before the 2024 season, however, Rizzo shook up the development arm of the front office with some long overdue moves, parting ways with close friend Johnny DiPuglia (responsible for signing Soto, Robles, and García Jr. but also responsible for the stagnation of the club's Dominican operation since Soto graduated, culminating in an 11-39 record in 2023 with a -140 run differential - hard to do in just fifty games) and shifting Kline (also a buddy) to a lesser advisory role while hiring Brad Ciolek from the Diamondbacks and Eddie Longosz from the Orioles to oversee drafting and player development, shifting a lot of the focus from the old-school scouting background of which Rizzo has always been a chief proponent. Good on him for recognizing (at long last) the need to adapt, and it appeared to pay major dividends throughout the system in 2024.

The Dominican Summer League team, the lowest level of the minors, had four stellar performers; the low-A Fredericksburg Nationals won a Carolina League championship led by a finalist for the national Minor League Pitcher of the Year, a whopping ten Nats made their major league debuts (including two of the top five prospects in baseball in James Wood and Dylan Crews), and four young Nationals already at the MLB level (Irvin, García Jr., CJ Abrams, and Jacob Young) had breakout seasons.

We will go in-depth in our rankings over the next few days, an exclusive for Nats Report+ subscribers only. [If you aren't a Nats Repor+ subscriber, become one today!]

The Nats Report's Top Ten Washington Nationals Prospects