2025 The Nats Report Nationals Top Prospects (Part 1)

Editors Note: Welcome to our Annual Washington Nationals Top Prospects Rankings. Over the next few days, we will be releasing our in-depth rankings.

Check out Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 Part 5, Part 6, and Part 7 and our top ten list!

I might have gone a little overboard with it, but this feels like the deepest that the Nats' prospect pool has ever been (although there is still a ton of variance and scads of the high ceiling/low floor guys that Nats fans have grown accustomed to in the Mike Rizzo era).

Before we dive into the multi-part list - which will be released over the next several days - with the bottom tier of the top fifty, I will explain my ranking methodology and process a bit so that when you yell at me in the comments for being way different from Baseball Prospectus or Keith Law or Fangraphs or whomever, at least you'll be informed in doing so.

Methodology

While I am not a professional scout, I do have a coaching background in baseball (ten seasons' worth, plus four more of softball), and a fun fact is that one of my former players DID go on to have a professional scouting career (shouts out to Kinza Baad of the Pirates, one of the very few women in pro baseball scouting - not that I can take any credit for her adult career). So, while I cannot claim to be an expert, I know what I'm looking for. I have seen twenty of the fifty live and all of the rest at least a little bit on film, with the Dominican Summer League players (six) and 2024 high school and pitching draftees (four) being the hardest to find.

I would say that I probably value performance - certainly at higher levels - a little more than projection, at least compared to, say, Keith Law or Baseball Prospectus. While I don't just "scout the stat line," I care about the results, particularly if sustained over a large sample size. Age relative to level matters a lot; Phillip Glasser dominating low-A and conquering high-A as a 24-year-old was not necessarily super-impressive, while 20-year-old T.J. White taking a year and a half to finally get going at high-A earns more grace. However, considering age, it is also worth remembering that pitchers and (especially) catchers develop later than other positions. Where guys play matters; Wilmington, home of the Nats' high-A Wilmington Blue Rocks, has one of the worst parks for power in all of affiliated baseball (particularly for right-handed hitters - a big reason why Dylan Crews skipped playing there). The Eastern League (home of the AA Harrisburg Senators) is very pitcher-friendly. In contrast, AAA Rochester Red Wings and the International League generally are much kinder to hitters. This is where wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) is a helpful tool for measuring where hitters are relative to their level; unfortunately, Fangraphs does not provide ERA- or FIP- for minor league pitchers.

Finally, the great unknown is the organization's ability to develop players. Up until very recently, the Nationals had a terrible track record when it came to developing all but the very best prospects; this year, Jake Irvin became the first player drafted later than the first round to surpass 2.0 bWAR in a Nats jersey since Michael A. Taylor...who was a sixth-round pick back in 2009. For years the development philosophy appeared to be "draft the most freakish athlete on the board and see if they can figure it out." Irvin is unquestionably the best pitcher the Nationals have developed since Stephen Strasburg, and catching has been an unmitigated disaster (Pedro Severino being the best). The "stars and scrubs" model that Rizzo and right-hand man Kris Kline subscribed to for years yielded a Mount Rushmore of Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Juan Soto but a relative paucity after that - the rest of the homegrown top ten before 2024 would include Drew Storen, Erick Fedde, Taylor, Victor Robles, Luis García Jr., and Irvin.

Before the 2024 season, however, Rizzo shook up the development arm of the front office with some long overdue moves, parting ways with close friend Johnny DiPuglia (responsible for signing Soto, Robles, and García Jr. but also responsible for the stagnation of the club's Dominican operation since Soto graduated, culminating in an 11-39 record in 2023 with a -140 run differential - hard to do in just fifty games) and shifting Kline (also a buddy) to a lesser advisory role while hiring Brad Ciolek from the Diamondbacks and Eddie Longosz from the Orioles to oversee drafting and player development, shifting a lot of the focus from the old-school scouting background of which Rizzo has always been a chief proponent. Good on him for recognizing (at long last) the need to adapt, and it appeared to pay major dividends throughout the system in 2024.

The Dominican Summer League team, the lowest level of the minors, had four stellar performers; the low-A Fredericksburg Nationals won the Carolina League Championship led by a finalist for the national Minor League Pitcher of the Year, a whopping ten Nats made their major league debuts (including two of the top five prospects in baseball in James Wood and Crews), and four young Nationals already at the MLB level (Irvin, García Jr., CJ Abrams, and Jacob Young) had breakout seasons.

Thus, it was a banner year for organizational development, but can they continue that momentum in 2025? The answer to that question will go a long way toward determining whether or not the Nationals can open another long competitive window shortly. Now, let's get to the rankings.

The eight players in this first group come from various levels, from the Dominican Summer League to AAA-Rochester Red Wings. Still, for one reason or another, they cannot be projected as more than fringe roster depth, the kind of player that gets optioned up and down a couple of times per season due to injury or ineffectiveness.

#50 Darrel Lunar 

Pos: RHP | 2025 Age: 19 | B/T: R/R | 2024 Level: R-DSL | 

MLB Comp: Hunter Harvey

Acquired: Signed as an amateur international free agent, 1/15/24

ERA: 4.00 | WHIP: 1.222 | FIP: 3.48 | IP: 36.0 | K/9: 10.25 | BB/9: 3.25

I’m putting Lunar in this tier because even though he was fairly successful in his first year of pro ball, he was a year older than much of his competition, and the DSL is a very pitcher-friendly league in general. It’s hard to know what to make of these teenagers before they come stateside and are facing not only the more advanced of their peers but high-end American high school draftees and some guys with college experience. Lunar throws 98 already, which is impressive for a string bean, and it seems likely that he could add a tick or two to that as he matures and gains strength.

#49 Nate Ochoa Leyva 

Pos: IF | 2025 Age: 21 | B/T: R/R | 2024 Level: A | 

MLB Comp: a very poor man’s Ben Zobrist

Acquired: 2022 amateur draft, 6th round/171st overall

AVG/OBP/SLG: .214/.297/.295 | HR: 3 | SB/ATT: 12/15 | wRC+: 80

Ochoa was a big and raw Canadian (Burlington, ON) when the Nats took him out of high school in the 2022 draft. He is still finding his way but managed to play all across the infield and a game in left field for the FredNats, with the bulk of that coming at third base and shortstop. He is likely to repeat low-A in 2025 and perhaps put himself in line for a second-half promotion depending on how things go, but he envisions a late-blooming utility player with decent speed and pop.

#48  Davian García

Pos: RHP | 2025 Age: 21 | B/T: R/R | 2024 Level: NCAA | 

MLB Comp: also Hunter Harvey?

Acquired: 2024 amateur draft, 6th round/170th Overall

ERA: 3.03 | WHIP: 1.213 | FIP: n/a | IP: 59.1 | K/9: 10.8 | BB/9: 3.0

García started his college career in Division II before transferring to a JUCO and, ultimately, Florida Gulf Coast, where he had a strong 2024 season. His fastball explodes out of his hand, and it’s pretty easy to watch a video of him and see a flamethrowing setup man in the future. García split his time between the rotation and bullpen for FGCU, but it is more likely that he will wind up as a reliever who can hopefully move pretty quickly through the system with his stuff.

#47 Daison Acosta

Pos: RHP | 2025 Age: 26 | B/T: R/R | 2024 Level: AA/AAA | 

MLB Comp: Joe Kelly

Acquired: 2023 Minor League Rule 5 draft, round 3

ERA: 2.61 | WHIP: 1.193 | FIP: 3.19/2.51 | IP: 58.2 | K/9: 12.6 | BB/9: 4.3

In what was something of a banner year for relief pitchers from the upper minors (Acosta is the first of five RP-only names on this list), Acosta’s success perhaps went unnoticed by many this season - perhaps because he was only taken from the Mets last winter and is not truly a homegrown product. Still, Acosta saw significant improvement in both his strikeout and walk rates from the previous season (9.6 and 6.0, respectively, in 2023 between A+ and AA), earning him a late-season promotion to AAA, where he had four scoreless appearances and got nine of his seventeen outs via strikeout. His fastball/slider/splitter combo was death vs. righties (.125/.243/.188) and not altogether terrible against lefties (.250/.343/.375). Assuming he is protected/not claimed by another organization this winter, it would not be surprising to see him debut at some point next summer and provide the Washington bullpen with another option-able arm.

#46 Max Romero 

Pos: C | 2025 Age: 24 | B/T: L/R | 2024 Level: A+ | 

MLB Comp: shorter Riley Adams

Acquired: 2022 amateur draft, 9th round/261st overall

AVG/OBP/SLG: .188/.277/.347 | HR: 9 | SB/ATT: 0/0 | wRC+: 80

Romero’s stat line might have you wondering why I include him at all, even in a top 50, but a) catchers develop differently than most, b) he spent the entire year in the hitters’ graveyard of Wilmington - where he was respectable from July on (.240/.347/.430) - and c) is only a year removed from an outstanding offensive performance in Fredericksburg. Unless the Nats bring back both Adams and Drew Millas (likely sending Millas to AAA), there are no catchers in A+ or higher that are more than filler, so Romero will likely get a chance to start 2025 in AA Harrisburg, albeit perhaps as the number two backstop. He is at least worth keeping tabs on, and the knowledge that the Nats just drafted three catchers that they are high on might push him a little more.

#45 Phillip Glasser 

Pos: UTIL | 2025 Age: 25 | B/T: L/R | 2024 Level: A/A+/AA | 

MLB Comp: a poor man’s Jake Cronenworth

Acquired: 2023 amateur draft, 10th round/285th Overall

AVG/OBP/SLG: .298/.392/.422 | HR: 8 | SB/ATT: 23/29 | 

wRC+: 198/142/51

A $20K senior sign out of Indiana University just last year, Glasser raked from when he joined the Nats until he hit a wall in the final few weeks of the season in Harrisburg. He walks about as often as he strikes out, runs the bases well, and has good doubles power. Will he be able to continue hitting at the upper levels of the minors when he no longer possesses as much of an age advantage as he has thus far? Only time will tell. Glasser should start 2025 by repeating Harrisburg and will likely continue to move around the field as needed (he played everywhere except center field and catcher in 2023). A world exists in which he becomes a serviceable part-time utility guy as soon as 2026.

#44 Jack Sinclair 

Pos: RHP | 2025 Age: 26 | B/T: R/R | 2024 Level: AA | 

MLB Comp: Derek Law 

Acquired: 2021 amateur draft, 16th round/473rd overall

ERA: 2.20 | WHIP: 0.959 | FIP: 3.15 | IP: 57.1 | K/9: 10.2 | BB/9: 3.1

Sinclair did some of everything for the Harrisburg Senators this year, serving as a fireman, closer, multi-inning reliever, and setup man. He was good throughout the season, which makes it a bit puzzling that he was never promoted to Rochester for a try there (especially since he did finish 2023 with the Red Wings). Sinclair is Rule 5-eligible this winter for the first time, and it will be interesting to see if the Nats protect him. Was cutting his walk rate by a full third a sign of growth or a side effect of repeating the level at which he spent most of 2023? If it was the former, he should make the 40-man roster and be on call at some point in 2025. If it was the latter, he might become org depth, but this spring will tell us where he stands.

#43 Jeremy De La Rosa

Pos: OF | 2025 Age: 23 | B/T: L/L | 2024 Level: A/A+/AA | 

MLB Comp: Lastings Milledge (for you old heads out there)

Acquired: signed as an amateur international free agent, 7/2/2018

AVG/OBP/SLG: .187/.250/.380 | HR: 14 | SB/ATT: 14/23 | 

wRC+: 168/68/53

JDLR is the second-longest-tenured member of this entire list (he and Andry Lara were signed two weeks after the Nats drafted Jackson Rutledge), and he very much comes from the Mike Rizzo & Kris Kline stable of “elite athletes with a couple of massive tools and at least one massive hole in their game” that we have come to know so well over the years. In De La Rosa’s case, the tools are power and speed, and the hole is the ability to contact the baseball. He walks an acceptable amount but had a miserable .200 BABIP at high-A and AA that sank his entire profile. It’s hard to believe that he was on the 40-man roster just a year ago (a silly decision - who is taking an A-ball outfielder in the Rule 5 draft?) and now barely cracks the top twelve outfielders in the organization.