A Lowe-Key Good Trade
Notes on Lowe-for-Garcia and on the passing of one of the greatest to ever suit up
Notes on Lowe-for-Garcia and on the passing of one of the greatest to ever suit up
Yesterday afternoon the Nationals completed a one-for-one trade with the Texas Rangers that sent left-handed reliever Robert Garcia to Texas in return for first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, who should provide quality defense as the everyday target for the infielders while giving the Nats much more consistent offense than the three-headed pu pu platter of Joey Gallo, Juan Yepez, and Andrés Chaparro (the latter two of whom were terrible in the field) did in 2024. He has been a starter on a recent World Series champion and comes to the Nationals with two more seasons of team control before free agency - he is projected to make $10 million or a little over in 2025.
In a vacuum, Lowe isn't the most exciting potential bat to add to a team, but he could very well make a huge difference for the Nationals. Nineteen players came to the plate at least 100 times for the Nats in 2024, and just three of them had an on-base percentage of .350 or better: Alex Call (.425 in 113 PA), James Wood (.354 in 336 PA), and Jesse Winker (.374 in 379 PA). Lowe has played at least 140 games in each of his four full seasons and has posted the following OBPs: .357, .358, .360, and .361. That is consistency! He might only be good for 15-20 home runs per year, but for a Nats team that finished 17th in OBP last year and no longer has their top regular in that category from 2024, Lowe is a nice addition. Add his Gold Glove defense - which will be extremely helpful for a scattershot infield and young pitching staff - and it looks even better.
The other good part about this acquisition? The cost! I definitely thought that acquiring an above-average hitter and defender with multiple years of team control remaining would cost more than one (1) setup man, so count me as pleasantly surprised. That the setup man was a waiver wire acquisition from the Marlins in 2023 and thus almost counts as free is even better. Garcia is a strong reliever if you only look at his peripheral stats, but extremely volatile in high-leverage situations. Trading him opens a new hole on the 26-roster, but one that is significantly easier to fill. For fans that had been grumbling about the team's inactivity this hot stove season (hello, it me), this is a fairly subtle move that could pay medium to large dividends.
If you are a subscriber to this site, you are probably aware that Rickey Henderson was, by any measure, the greatest leadoff hitter of all time. I won't bore you with all the numbers, but they are staggering - you can find his picture among the career leaders in the following categories: WAR (14th), games (4th), at bats (13th), plate appearances (4th), runs (1st), walks (2nd), stolen bases (1st - with only two players within 500 of him and only nine with even 50% of his total), singles (23rd), runs created (12th), times on base (4th), and win probability added (16th). He led the majors in stolen bases a dozen times, the last when he was 39 years old (with 66, which would have led MLB any season 2011-2021 and would have been just one behind Elly De La Cruz in 2024). As a 40-year-old with the Mets in 2000 he hit .315/.423/.466 (128 OPS+) and stole 37 bases in 123 games. His longevity and fitness were simply astounding.
More than the numbers, though, Rickey was one of the most memorable personalities in baseball history. He talked about himself almost exclusively in the third person, talked as much trash as Larry Bird, held out every spring for more money, pimped home runs like nobody's business (watching out of the box, a turn wider than an 18-wheeler, the whole nine yards), and just generally brought fun vibes. His highly anticipated Hall of Fame speech did not disappoint. And for all that owners and GMs thought of him as a spoiled money-grubber, he thought about the little people. From Mike Piazza's 2013 memoir: “Rickey was the most generous guy I ever played with, and whenever the discussion came around to what we should give one of the fringe people — whether it was a minor leaguer who came up for a few days or the parking lot attendant — Rickey would shout out “Full share!” We’d argue for a while and he’d say, “Fuck that! You can change somebody’s life!” Legendary. And now he is with the other immortals. Rest in peace, Rickey.